By Steven I. Davis (auth.)
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But you don’t need One Bank to make the offer. The Evolution of Business Models 31 What creates value? Look at the relative price/earning ratios. (with wealth management far superior to investment banking)! For regulator and former rating agency head Sam Theodore, It’s too early to tell which model will win. But there are trends. The market may fear banks that are too big and all-inclusive, but regardless of size they should have clearly deﬁned business lines, with a transparent and simple structure.
This brief excursion into banking history thus places in perspective the challenge of the current ﬁnancial crisis and the dramatic changes which have taken place at the top of some of the world’s leading banks. While the past few decades have seen banking crises, the trauma of 2007–2008 was a unique challenge. As Lucas Van Praag noted in our interview for this book, No one imagined the degree of dislocations in the credit markets. Many of the leaders who have involuntarily left the scene in 2007–2008 had impressive experience in general management and certainly possessed the ‘soft’ skills of managing a large and complex bank, but they often lacked the deep risk management experience and judgement which was highlighted in the quotations in Chapter 4.
John Leonard, a career bank stock analyst and fund manager at BlackRock Investment Management in London, agrees: We have to be reminded of ‘tail’ events – lots of ﬁnancial transactions don’t have a normal statistical distribution. e. a long tail – and it could even be a meteorite! We also have to question the stability of the models used by regulators and rating agencies. In the UK, regulators in late 2008 moved the goal posts by stress testing a worst case and told the banks ‘your capital is inadequate’ even though there was no change in the business.
Banking in Turmoil: Strategies for Sustainable Growth by Steven I. Davis (auth.)